I still remember the last day of one of my classes in the
university. It was a physically painful day. Here is how it all went down… I
was first asked to bring 4 of my 5 major text books to class, each weighing
nothing less than 5kgs. So with approximately 25kgs in my backpack, I began my 2
mile walk to class. And to make the event all the more dramatic, the university
was hit by an unexpected blizzard the night before, leaving behind 9 inches of
snow. So after crossing the “arctic circle” and having reached my class and
while defrosting myself, my professor walks in, with a garbage can in hand,
while speaking the following ,“those who have brought your books may throw them
into the trash can if you’d like, for they will hardly serve you in the real
world”… It took me a while to understand this statement as my brain was still thawing,
but once it hit me, IT HIT ME!
The
truth of his statement can be seen in today’s financial market. Economic cycles
are all over the place, the index charts look like the doodles of a 3 year old
and SUPER POWERS are becoming super powers… The
knowledge that had been written in the books has started to lose their grounds
in the current economic climate. With drastic changes, the system has evolved
into something very new and very unpredictable. Market vigilance has become a
‘must’ for every individual.
At the
beginning of the year, prices were maintained and then raised to keep inflation
under control. However, with the turn of events that happened along the way, market
predictions had to be done on a daily basis. That was how the first half of the
year had been functioning. And now, ready or not, here comes the second half.
The
second half is going to have both the good and the bad. Due to the lack of
money circulating in the system, changes are bound to happen in the market. The
good news would come from the corporate sector as it would look into new ways
of acquiring money for their projects and would lead to a healthy performance
of the equity market. The bad news would
come the property markets as prices of properties might start heading south (but
nothing like the American housing bubble crisis) simply because people might
start cutting back on their expenditures. And with the lack of liquid money in
the system, loans are not going to be that easy to acquire for these buyers. Of
course… this would be revamped a little when the next war happens, pandemic
breaks out or natural disaster strikes…
So as
an investor, what are we to invest into for these coming months? My bets are on
the equities, particularly the Asia Pacific region. As the American and
European markets are walking a thin line and looking at a possible crash, the
Asian/ASEAN region has become a (relatively) safe haven for investments. And
looking at the strides the Asian/ASEAN region is making, it is only a matter of
time until it becomes completely self sustaining. And this wave should be
surfed while still young coz when it booms, there is really not much room for
gain.
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